Ranking and Promotion

General slalom chatter...rant about the bad, rave about the good

Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby JoS » Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:51 am

Thank you Dee! Some of the LV people are absolutely lovely and very helpful, I hope the others are starting to follow suit. I have only oberved one incident of shouting at helpers this year so far...
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby Nick Penfold » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:04 pm

Dave brads wrote: I really should check my facts! Andy is quite right that very few paddlers have been promoted as a result of a PU result.

Having got Duncan to check the facts (amazing what he can get out of the database) they are that, out of all promotions from Div 2 to Div 1 this year:
* 2 K1 women count a PU result towards promotion
* 2 C1 men count a PU result towards promotion (one of them counts two)
* No K1 men or C1 women have counted a PU result towards promotion.
Beating half the next division up is a big achievement and I wouldn't grudge any of these.

By the way I'm still hoping for people to offer to propose and second an increase in promotion targets:
* Increasing targets for promotion from Div 2 to Div 1 (currently 2250) to 2300 for 2018 and then possibly to 2350 for 2019
* Increasing targets for promotion from Div 3 to Div 2 (currently 1040) to 1070 for 2018 and then possibly to 1100 for 2019
You need to be a BC / SCA / WCA member and your club must be registered with slalom.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby JimW » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:59 am

JoS wrote:I suspect Pinkston may have struggled in June because it is in the middle of 4 consecutive weekends of div 2/3s, two of which had two 2/3s running the same weekend, one of which was Pinkston weekend:
Llandysul & Fairnilee
Bala Mill & Pinkston
Washburn
Howsham Weir
Then a weekend with no div 2s in then:
Ironbridge

So I'd be looking at that and thinking, well, I want a rest and some chilled-out weekend training in the middle of that 4 week block, and since Pinkston is div 3 one day and div 2 the other, and Washburn is always a laugh and has good pasta, Pinkston is the one I would reluctantly decide to miss.


We are digressing a lot way fromranking and promotion now, however;

The date clash was a major part of our conclusions, the draft calendar for next year has us in a period with no other div 2's for several weekends and it is a bank holiday which should help with travel/school/work considerations for some people too. Keeping our fingers crossed that the final calendar doesn't come out with a clash!
We realise accommodation is another factor, we will need to look into options for that.

However, you are mistaken about it being 2 single day events, we alter the pumps and gate heights several times each day so that div 2 and 3 run consecutively as double events like other 2/3s, but with a significant difference in the difficulty of the course for each division (due to flow rate, gate positions are the same). We do all div 2 1st runs, then all div 3 1st runs, then break for lunch, followed by div 2 2nd runs and finally div 3 2nd runs.

It does create a little anxiety in div 3's that get promoted on Saturday when they realise they will be paddling with more flow on the Sunday, but they usually cope just fine. I think the paddlers who are more anxious are the ones who arrive recently promoted to div 2 that haven't paddled here at all... again they usually get the hang of it pretty quickly. I remember you asked if we could get some video of 1 pump to see if it would suit you, I'll need to ask our parents and see if any of them have some they are prepared to share, maybe of adults.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby JimW » Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:39 pm

Nick Penfold wrote:
Dave brads wrote: I really should check my facts! Andy is quite right that very few paddlers have been promoted as a result of a PU result.

Having got Duncan to check the facts (amazing what he can get out of the database) they are that, out of all promotions from Div 2 to Div 1 this year:
* 2 K1 women count a PU result towards promotion
* 2 C1 men count a PU result towards promotion (one of them counts two)
* No K1 men or C1 women have counted a PU result towards promotion.
Beating half the next division up is a big achievement and I wouldn't grudge any of these.

By the way I'm still hoping for people to offer to propose and second an increase in promotion targets:
* Increasing targets for promotion from Div 2 to Div 1 (currently 2250) to 2300 for 2018 and then possibly to 2350 for 2019
* Increasing targets for promotion from Div 3 to Div 2 (currently 1040) to 1070 for 2018 and then possibly to 1100 for 2019
You need to be a BC / SCA / WCA member and your club must be registered with slalom.


I know in the past people have made a point about differences in race preparation and psychology between paddling up and entering as an official. I don't think I personally prepare any differently, however for those of us that paddle more than 1 class, paddling up (if we get entries) allows us to try the harder water/courses in more than one class, whilst paddling as officials we have to choose one class only. I would therefore be sad to lose PU as an option, however poorly I perform when paddling up, especially in C1 (glug).

Altering promotion points seems perfectly reasonable, but I'm a div 2 paddler so I don't think I'll be getting involved in that proposal... :wink:

Stats are great, I can think of an exception though, a K1M who earned enough points from a PU for it to have counted if he hadn't won 3 races instead.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby djberriman » Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:10 am

We can fiddle with targets but it won't solve the issues in my humble opinion.

My own thought (and I keep coming back to it) is to introduce a division between 1 and 2 (1.5 for the sake of argument).

Make some of the exiting races div 1.5 (the harder div 2's and easier div 1's).

Move some of div 2 paddlers to 1.5 and some of div 1 paddlers to 1.5

A better stepping stone from 2 to 1, less paddlers in div 1, potentially no more events required.

Paddle up opportunities from 2 to 1.5 and 1.5 to 1.

Remaining Div 1 races can potentially be made harder.

Perhaps call existing Div 1 Championship and the new division Division 1.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby JBS » Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:34 am

I like that idea Duncan. I personally could see myself going for a 1.5 entry. Load of water time on something worthwhile. I live in Nottingham and paddle at HPP weekly so a Bala Mill 2/3 or (with respect) a Howsham 2/3 doesn't really excite me enough to spend my pennies on an entry......however a Div 1.5 on HPP,Tees, Tryweren, LV or even the Washburn....now that would get me applying for an individual bib!
Yes there are one or two good Div 2's this year, but being realistic I am still a bit too good for div 2 races......and there is not enough water time at a Div 1to make the weekend value enough for me or the family.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby davebrads » Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:41 am

I agree with the principle, but I don't know why we need to make a new name for it. Just demote enough paddlers from division 1 to strengthen division 2 to the point that the division will be big enough to support races on the better courses. And then repurpose some of the div 1 races for the new, stronger division 2.

The hard sell will be persuading demoted div 1 paddlers that it is worth continuing racing, so a selection of quality div 2 races would have to be announced when the demotions are made.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby WindsorCC » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:19 pm

Feels to me like if we want to strengthen Div 2 by demoting more from Div 1 and improving the quality of Div 2 races, without losing significant numbers of demoted Div 1 paddlers, or complicating the system by adding a Div 1.5 (whatever it's called) it's a long-term strategic decision.

Should we agree now ideal numbers for Prem, Div 1 and Div 2, ensuring a pyramid (or triangle for those being pedantic) structure (given that a significant reduction in the size of Div 1, could also mean a reduction in the size of Prem), and then have a plan to work towards that over a number of years, demoting a larger number than normal to get to that point? Maybe division sizes are calculated each year as a percentage of the total number of active paddlers from Div 3 upwards to maintain the structure.

As others have mentioned though, it needs to start from the end of the 2018 season, so everyone knows through the season where the cut-off is, and can then work towards staying up, if they want to.

So, any restructuring decision now might take until 2021 to play-out.

There's a separate question about in-year promotions, I can see arguments both for and against. But, if the size of each division is published in advance, those at the bottom will still be able to see if they are safe. More in-year promotions will just mean more demotions, but at least it'll be transparent as to where a paddler needs to be sitting.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby djberriman » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:46 pm

We need an extra division not just to demote.

Couple of years ago the current P/1 bubble/over capacity was in div 2 with events full weeks before and everyone chasing around for places, this happened for a couple of years until the bubble moved up, simply demoting will recreate this issue.

The size of division 2 to support better courses is not the issue its the cost of those courses versus the div 2 entry fee, so making it bigger won't solve that issue even a full subscribed div 2 race won't pay for tees for instance.

I'd actually suggest you may decide to demote some prems to 1, some 1s to 1.5 and promote some 2's to 1.5 to get the 'shape' it appears everyone feels the need, part of the proposal would of course to be to designate (with the approval of organisers) which races would be 1, 1.5 and 2 out of the existing calendar, there are a lot of 2's so the harder ones could be 1.5 and some of the div 1's could also be 1.5.

It would I hope at least solve the capacity issue, perhaps allow for better racing with a more standard level of racing and easier steps up between divisions.

By calling the 1 championship and 1.5 1 everyone wins as no one (except perhaps prem paddlers) will 'feel' they are being demoted.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby davebrads » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:10 pm

I still don't see the need for a new name. The only point you make that requires a new division is the cost of courses, but there is already an option for an enhanced entry fee. The problem div 2 has is that there aren't enough competitors entering races to cover the cost of the more expensive courses without an excessive "enhancement". This can be overcome by increased demotions from div 1 (and from Prem to div 1) and a harder promotion target. You still get your div 1.5, but without having to increase entry fees for the more affordable courses.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby James Hastings » Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:21 pm

Couple of years ago the current P/1 bubble/over capacity was in div 2 with events full weeks before and everyone chasing around for places, this happened for a couple of years until the bubble moved up, simply demoting will recreate this issue.


Sorry, but I've been in div 2 for the past 10 years and I do not remember any time when div 2s were oversubscribed.

Ultimately you can stick as many divisions in the mix as you like, but if you do not equalise the number of promotions/rerankings and demotions/natural wastage over the course of a season, then you will eventually get a top-heavy system. That is the nature of the animal. I know other sport in which promotions outnumber demotions.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby James Hastings » Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:29 pm

I really ought to re-read my submissions before I hit the Submit button!

The last sentence should read that I know of no other sport in which a divisional system is used that has more promotees than demotees.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby Nick Penfold » Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:46 am

James says "I know of no other sport in which a divisional system is used that has more promotees than demotees."

I find that odd, because the other factor is dropout. Every year life happens and a substantial number of paddlers drop out, and drop off the lists. That's the (more or less) balancing figure that keeps the numbers roughly in line. The same must be true for other sports, so if they had more demotions than promotions (or as many demotions as promotions) they would be dying.

We don't "demote" paddlers with no results, we just drop them off the lists. We only "demote" paddlers with points, but not enough points. If I published the numbers "demoted" including paddlers with no results the "demotions" number would look a lot bigger, but the top end of the next division down's lists would be cluttered up with paddlers who are no longer active.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby Nick Penfold » Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:44 pm

Windsor says "Should we agree now ideal numbers for Prem, Div 1 and Div 2, ensuring a pyramid..?"


The Committee have been pursuing a pyramid for the past twelve years. Every year they review the division stucture and demote towards a target pyramid. We get closest to it in K1M, because the numbers make it feasible. K1W is a bit more difficult, and because of the smaller numbers a pyramid in either C1 class would mean a very small Div 1 and a tiny Prem.

But this only establishes the size of the divisions at the start of the year. Once the season gets going, things move. Over the course of the year, roughly:
300 paddlers are promoted from Div 4 into Div 3
130 Div 3s go up to Div 2
100 Div 2s go up to Div 1
50 Div 1s go up to Prem

The actual figures for 2016 are typical, and the pyramid stays more or less in proportion. Sorry, but this chatroom software collapses the table:
Start In Up End
Prem 185 55 0 240
Div 1 270 98 55 313
Div 2 353 127 98 382
Div 3 415 281 127 569

It's quite a steep-sided pyramid, but that's because if we ever got to our "target" (10% - 20% - 30% - 40%) early-season Prem races wouldn't be viable. Historically, about 66% of Prem paddlers attend any one race: about 50% of Div 1s: about 25% of Div 2s, and so on. The problem is that by the end of the season the numbers are pushing race capacity in Prem and Div 1. So it is the rate of promotion that's the issue.

If we are to demote more at the end of each year, I would prefer to move that way by redefining what we mean by "short season" to mean "promoted after 30th June". That would make a small, but significant, increase in the number of weaker (or inactive) paddlers we can demote, without brutal demotion lines or filling the next division down with capable people who will take up the points and promotion opportunities.

You are welcome to look at the figures used by the Committee last year for demotions, at http://www.canoeslalom.co.uk/info/201617Proposed%20Demotions.pdf

PS I've left C2s out of all the above numbers. They don't make much difference, and they're very complicated.
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Re: Ranking and Promotion

Postby JimW » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:22 pm

Nick Penfold wrote:It's quite a steep-sided pyramid, but that's because if we ever got to our "target" (10% - 20% - 30% - 40%) early-season Prem races wouldn't be viable. Historically, about 66% of Prem paddlers attend any one race: about 50% of Div 1s: about 25% of Div 2s, and so on. The problem is that by the end of the season the numbers are pushing race capacity in Prem and Div 1. So it is the rate of promotion that's the issue.


Maybe we are looking at the wrong angle?

I realise there is a lot of tradition involved in sport, but if the issue is that towards the end of each season we are running out of capacity in Prem and Div 1, maybe we should review the calendar and order the races for those divisions by capacity, putting the lower capacity events early and the higher capacity events later in the year, thus ensuring good attendance at all races and more space for promotees when they need it?

I don't see the point for Div 2 and below because paddlers are prepared to travel less far for each division down so entry levels depend more on locality than capacity or size of division, but I will conced that point if the stats say otherwise.
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